Resale Value Trends in Tokyo Condominiums
A Data-Driven, Long-Form Analysis of the Tokyo Resale Market
Tokyo Condominium Resale Market — Structure, Data, and Area-Level Trends
1. Introduction: Why Resale Value Matters More Than Ever in Tokyo
Tokyo is often misunderstood in global real estate discussions. Many international buyers still believe that Japanese condominiums automatically lose value over time, similar to automobiles or consumer goods. While this perception may apply to certain regional markets, it does not accurately describe Tokyo’s condominium resale market—especially within the 23 wards.
For beginners, it is important to understand one key concept from the start: Tokyo is not a shrinking market in practical terms, even if Japan as a whole faces demographic decline. Employment, education, capital, and infrastructure continue to concentrate in Tokyo, creating long-term housing demand that directly supports resale value.
Resale value matters for three main reasons:
- Most buyers do not hold property forever. Life events such as job changes, family growth, or relocation eventually force a sale.
- A property with strong resale value reduces financial risk, even for owner-occupiers.
- Investors depend on resale value to realize capital gains and exit efficiently.
This guide is written for beginners who want to understand why some Tokyo condominiums resell easily at high prices, while others struggle—even within the same ward. Each chapter explains the logic step by step, using data, examples, and plain language rather than industry jargon.
In global real estate markets, resale value is often treated as a secondary consideration, especially in cities where housing is primarily viewed as a consumption good. Tokyo is different. Despite Japan’s overall population decline, Tokyo—particularly the 23 wards—continues to function as a capital-concentrated, liquidity-driven real estate market. As a result, condominium resale value has become a central decision factor for both owner-occupiers and investors.
Several structural forces explain why resale value has gained importance:
- New condominium supply has declined due to rising construction costs, labor shortages, and stricter regulations.
- New-build prices have increased at a pace far exceeding wage growth, pushing buyers toward the resale market.
- Tokyo’s condominium market remains one of the most liquid in Asia, with relatively short selling periods compared to other major cities.
- Foreign participation, while still limited compared to cities like London or Singapore, has increased and is highly concentrated in resale-friendly locations.
This article analyzes Tokyo condominium resale value trends using a data-oriented approach, focusing on price indices, area-level differences, building age, liquidity, and forward-looking scenarios. Rather than relying on general optimism, it explains why certain properties retain value and which factors consistently matter at resale.
2. Long-Term Price Trends in the Tokyo Resale Market (2015–2025)
Figure 1: Tokyo 23 Wards – Resale Condominium Price Index (2015 = 100)
| Year | Price Index | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 100 | – |
| 2017 | 108 | +3.9% |
| 2019 | 115 | +3.2% |
| 2020 | 118 | +2.6% |
| 2022 | 135 | +7.6% |
| 2024 | 152 | +6.8% |
| 2025 | 158 | +3.9% |
Analysis
From 2015 to 2025, resale condominium prices in Tokyo’s 23 wards increased by nearly 60% on an index basis. Importantly, this growth was not limited to a single boom period. Even during global uncertainty (2020–2021), prices did not experience a meaningful correction.
Key observations:
- Price growth accelerated after 2021 as construction costs surged and new supply tightened.
- Unlike previous cycles, resale prices did not lag behind new-build prices; in some locations, they closely tracked them.
- The resilience of resale prices highlights Tokyo’s depth of end-user demand rather than speculative excess.
3. New-Build vs Resale: Understanding the Structural Price Gap
Figure 2: Average Condominium Prices in Tokyo (70 sqm equivalent)
| Category | Average Price | 5-Year Change |
|---|---|---|
| New-build | JPY 120 million | +35% |
| Resale | JPY 85 million | +28% |
While new-build condominiums continue to set record prices, resale properties have benefited indirectly. The widening gap between new and resale prices has made resale units more attractive to buyers who prioritize location and size over novelty.
Why this matters for resale value:
- Buyers benchmark resale prices against new-build prices in the same area.
- When new-build prices rise too far, resale units gain pricing power.
- In prime locations, resale units often outperform expectations because replacement cost becomes the true price anchor.
This dynamic has fundamentally changed resale behavior: selling is no longer seen as a loss-minimization exercise, but increasingly as a value realization opportunity.
4. Area-Based Resale Value Performance in Tokyo
4.1 Prime Central Wards (Chiyoda, Chuo, Minato, Shibuya, Shinjuku)
Figure 3: Average Resale Price per sqm (Prime Wards)
| Ward | Price per sqm | 5-Year Growth |
|---|---|---|
| Chiyoda | JPY 2.10 million | +32% |
| Minato | JPY 1.95 million | +35% |
| Shibuya | JPY 1.85 million | +30% |
These wards consistently demonstrate the strongest resale value retention in Tokyo. Even older buildings maintain high price floors due to land value dominance.
Key drivers:
- Concentration of high-income employment and international businesses
- Strong rental demand supporting exit liquidity
- Limited land supply and redevelopment constraints
In these wards, resale risk is relatively low, but entry costs are high. Buyers effectively trade yield for capital stability.
4.2 Residential Stability Zones (Meguro, Setagaya, Bunkyo)
| Ward | Price per sqm | Market Character |
|---|---|---|
| Meguro | JPY 1.50 million | Central-adjacent, resale-friendly |
| Setagaya | JPY 1.20 million | Family-driven, stable |
| Bunkyo | JPY 1.40 million | Education-focused, limited supply |
These areas offer a balance between affordability and resale resilience. Price volatility is low, and resale demand is driven primarily by domestic end-users rather than investors.
5. Station Proximity and Liquidity at Resale
Figure 4: Price Impact by Walking Distance to Station
| Distance | Relative Price | Liquidity Impact |
|---|---|---|
| ≤5 min | 100% | Very high |
| 6–10 min | 92% | High |
| 11–15 min | 85% | Moderate |
Station proximity directly affects both resale price and time-on-market. Properties within 10 minutes of a major station consistently sell faster and with smaller discounts.
For resale-focused buyers, station distance is often more important than building age.
6. Market Liquidity: How Fast Do Condominiums Actually Sell?
Figure 5: Average Days on Market (Resale)
| Area | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Minato | 45 days |
| Shibuya | 50 days |
| Setagaya | 60 days |
| Suburban Tokyo | 85 days |
Liquidity is a hidden component of resale value. Faster transactions reduce price negotiation risk and carrying costs.
Building Age, Renovation Effects, Investment Logic, and Future Outlook
7. Building Age and Value Retention in Tokyo
Figure 6: Value Retention by Building Age (New = 100)
| Age | Retention Rate |
|---|---|
| 5 years | 95% |
| 10 years | 90% |
| 20 years | 82% |
| 30 years | 75% |
Unlike many global markets, Tokyo condominiums do not experience rapid depreciation after 20 years, particularly in central wards.
Reasons include:
- Strong land value component
- Regular seismic upgrades and maintenance
- Active resale and renovation market
8. Renovation and Its Direct Impact on Resale Prices
Figure 7: Resale Price Comparison (Renovated vs Non-Renovated)
| Condition | Relative Price |
|---|---|
| Non-renovated | 100% |
| Fully renovated | 112% |
Renovation is not merely cosmetic in Tokyo. Buyers place high value on modernized plumbing, insulation, and earthquake resilience.
Strategic renovation often delivers higher returns than holding an unmodified unit, especially for buildings aged 20–35 years.
9. Rental Yield vs Resale Value: A Trade-Off or a Balance?
Figure 8: Typical Gross Rental Yields
| Area | Gross Yield |
|---|---|
| Minato | 3.0–3.5% |
| Shinjuku | 3.5–4.0% |
| Koto | 4.0–4.5% |
Low yields in prime areas are often offset by stronger resale value and lower vacancy risk. Investors increasingly evaluate total return rather than yield alone.
10. Foreign Buyers and Their Influence on Resale Dynamics
Foreign buyers tend to concentrate in:
- Central wards
- Buildings with English-friendly management
- Properties with clear resale comparables
Although foreign ownership remains a minority, it provides price support in select micro-markets and increases resale liquidity.
11. Downside Risks to Resale Value
Figure 9: Key Risk Factors
| Risk Factor | Impact Level |
|---|---|
| Poor building management | High |
| Insufficient repair reserves | High |
| Rising interest rates | Medium |
| Area decline | Medium |
Resale performance is highly sensitive to management quality and long-term maintenance planning.
12. Outlook: 2026–2035 Resale Value Scenarios
Figure 10: Price Growth Scenarios
| Scenario | Annual Change |
|---|---|
| Base case | +1–3% |
| Bull case | +4–5% |
| Bear case | 0 to –1% |
While rapid appreciation is unlikely to continue indefinitely, Tokyo’s resale market is structurally positioned to avoid sharp corrections.
13. Conclusion: What the Data Really Tells Us
Tokyo condominium resale value is not driven by hype, but by liquidity, land scarcity, and replacement cost dynamics. Buyers who understand these fundamentals can approach resale not as a risk, but as a strategic advantage.
In a market where selling is often as important as buying, Tokyo remains one of the most resale-resilient urban condominium markets in the world.
